Buyers Remain Pessimistic for Now, but Still Want to Buy Down the Road

Buyers Remain Pessimistic for Now, but Still Want to Buy Down the Road

Written By: Joel Palmer, Op-Ed Writer

A housing shortage for potential middle income buyers and decreasing optimism from all potential buyers is contributing to fewer purchase originations for mortgage processors and underwriters.

But there’s potential good news in that the next generation of potential homeowners remains interested in ownership.

The National Association of Realtors released a report earlier this month that the U.S. housing market is short more than 300,000 affordable homes for middle-income buyers. The analysis said the country’s continued lack of inventory impacts middle-income buyers more than any other income bracket.

NAR and Realtor.com®'s housing affordability and supply report examined the number of listings missing by price range in the current market when compared to a balanced market. A balanced market is defined as when half of all available homes fall within the price range affordable for middle-income buyers.

According to the report, there were about 1.1 million homes for sale at the end of April 2023. While that was more than the number of homes available the year before, the market is missing almost 320,000 home listings valued up to $256,000, the affordable price range for middle-income buyers or households earning up to $75,000. Middle-income buyers can afford to buy less than a quarter (23%) of listings in the current market. Five years ago, this income group could afford to buy half of all available homes.

"Middle-income buyers face the largest shortage of homes among all income groups, making it even harder for them to build wealth through homeownership," said Nadia Evangelou, NAR senior economist and director of real estate research. "A two-fold approach is needed to help with both low affordability and limited housing supply. It's not just about increasing supply. We must boost the number of homes at the price range that most people can afford to buy.”

Not surprisingly, Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index continues to show decreasing optimism toward homebuying in the current environment.

The May survey showed that only 19 percent of respondents think now is a good time to buy a home, down from 23 percent the month before. Furthermore, about 81 percent of current renters believe it would be difficult to get a mortgage today, matching a survey high.

“As we near the end of the spring homebuying season, the latest HPSI results indicate that affordability hurdles, including high home prices and mortgage rates, remain top of mind for consumers, most of whom continue to tell us that it’s a bad time to buy a home but a good time to sell one,” said Mark Palim, Fannie Mae Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist.

“Consumers also indicated that they don’t expect these affordability constraints to improve in the near future, with significant majorities thinking that both home prices and mortgage rates will either increase or remain the same over the next year. Notably, the same factors impacting affordability may also be affecting the perceived ease of getting a mortgage.”

Another survey showed younger generations still want to buy a home, but they may wait longer than previous generations.

FinLocker, a data analyst that focuses on consumers’ financial data, recently surveyed millennials and Gen Z consumers on their financial habits. The survey indicated that both generations regarded financial freedom and owning a home one day as their two top priorities.

Prabhakar Bhogaraju, executive vice-president and the head of strategy and product development at FinLocker, said that mortgage professionals should take notice of the median homeowner age rising due to spiking home prices and student debt, specifically with Gen Z consumers. The survey results indicate that student loan payments are the primary reason for delaying young people from buying homes.

Bhogaraju recommends that professionals educate younger potential buyers on financial and mortgage literacy, as only one-third of survey respondents said they felt properly educated about the homebuying process.

“Even though the main goal of millennial and Gen Z consumers is to be debt free, they should use buying a home as a vehicle to become [financially] free,” Bhogaraju said. “[Buying] a home is an investment.”


About the Author

As an NAMU® Opinion Editorial Contributor, Joel Palmer is a freelance writer who spent 10 years as a business and financial reporter and another 10 years in marketing for the insurance and financial services industries. He regularly writes about the mortgage industry, as well as residential and commercial real estate, investments, and retirement income planning. He has also ghostwritten books on starting a business, marketing, and retirement income planning.


Opinion-Editorial (Op-Ed) Disclaimer For NAMU® Library Articles: The views and opinions expressed in the NAMU® Library articles are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect any official NAMU® policy or position. Examples of analysis performed within this article are only examples. They should not be utilized in real-world application as they are based only on very limited and dated open source information. Assumptions made within the analysis are not reflective of the position of NAMU®. Nothing contained in this articles should be considered legal advice.