What Awaits Mortgage Professionals in 2025?

What Awaits Mortgage Professionals in 2025?

Written By: Joel Palmer, Op-Ed Writer

The mortgage industry will face its share of challenges, opportunities and unknowns in 2025. Here are a few trends on the horizon:

Perhaps the biggest unknown for mortgage underwriters and processors is the effect of a second Donald Trump administration on the industry.

The Biden administration’s priority in the housing sector was making housing more affordable and accessible. Vice President Harris and Trump both indicated a desire to make housing more affordable using different approaches.

Trump and the Republican National Committee platform proposed increasing supply by making public lands available for building. They also expressed hope that reducing inflation would lead to lower mortgage rates. Additionally, their platform mentioned promoting homeownership through tax incentives and support for first-time buyers, and cutting “unnecessary regulations that raise housing costs.”

Speaking of affordability…

Fannie Mae predicted that the new year will resemble 2024 from an affordability perspective. Mortgage rates will stay above 6 percent, Fannie economists said, and home prices will continue to rise, though at a slower pace. Housing supply will also continue to be an issue.

Fannie forecasts that existing homes sales will remain near 30-year lows, though some regions will benefit from having more inventory. Though home sales are expected to increase 4.8 percent next year, the final number is forecasted to be more than 20 percent below 2019.

Fannie added that single-family purchase originations will grow about 12 percent to $1.4 trillion next year, while the refinance market is expected to grow from $360 billion in 2024 to $529 billion in 2025.

Speaking of mortgage originations…

Fannie Mae is scheduled to release Desktop Underwriter 12.0 the weekend of January 11. Fannie promoted several enhancements with this latest version, most notably updates to DU Risk Assessment risk factors. It will also include enhanced assessment of borrowers with limited or no credit, more borrowers becoming eligible for a cashflow assessment, and technical updates that may allow for more frequent adjustments to the DU Risk Assessment in response to changing market conditions.

Speaking of mortgage underwriting…

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) is in the midst of replacing the Classic FICO credit score with FICO 10T and VantageScore 4.0. The transition to the new models also includes changing the requirement for three credit reports to only two credit reports for single-family loan acquisitions by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Both transitions are expected to occur in the fourth quarter of 2025.

In addition, Fair Isaac Corporation will likely continue to raise the ire of politicians, regulators and industry groups, as it did in leading up to its recent announcement of a price increase. Even before FICO announced that its wholesale royalty fee for credit scores was increasing from $3.50 to $4.95 per report, there were numerous requests for more regulatory scrutiny of the company.

Speaking of regulatory scrutiny…

This year may finally see a crackdown on “trigger leads.” Just before the new year, the U.S. Senate passed the Homebuyers Privacy Protection Act (S. 3502) designed to minimize trigger leads. These occur when a consumer’s credit inquiry “triggers” the sale of their information to third-party lenders and businesses. The legislation still has to clear the U.S. House, with a similar bill (H.R. 7297) already pending.

And bringing it full circle…

The election of Trump will likely increase discussion, if not movement, on ending the conservatorships of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac after four years of relative silence on the issue.

In December, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released a report showing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are in better financial position to repay the U.S. Treasury for its stake in the enterprises than they were four years ago.

CBO conducted updated analysis on the effects of recapitalizing the GSEs at the request of the House Financial Services Committee. The original analysis was conducted in August 2020.

Fannie and Freddie have been under the conservatorship of the FHFA, which also regulates the entities, since the financial crisis of 2008. For a decade, the entities paid nearly all of their earnings to Treasury, which owns the dominant stakes in the two GSEs.

In late 2019, after several years of profitability, Treasury allowed the GSEs to retain more of their earnings to rebuild their capital reserves. This was considered a vital step for Fannie and Freddie to raise the necessary capital to once again become fully private enterprises.

CBO noted that the GSEs’ combined assets, income, and capital are higher today than what the 2020 analysis projected they would have at this point.


About the Author

As an NAMU® Opinion Editorial Contributor, Joel Palmer is a freelance writer who spent 10 years as a business and financial reporter and another 10 years in marketing for the insurance and financial services industries. He regularly writes about the mortgage industry, as well as residential and commercial real estate, investments, and retirement income planning. He has also ghostwritten books on starting a business, marketing, and retirement income planning.


Opinion-Editorial (Op-Ed) Disclaimer For NAMU® Library Articles: The views and opinions expressed in the NAMU® Library articles are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect any official NAMU® policy or position. Examples of analysis performed within this article are only examples. They should not be utilized in real-world application as they are based only on very limited and dated open source information. Assumptions made within the analysis are not reflective of the position of NAMU®. Nothing contained in this articles should be considered legal advice.