New Conforming Limits Take Effect as Recession Looms in 2023
Written By: Joel Palmer, Op-Ed Writer
Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group (ESR) took its first crack at forecasting 2024, predicting a recovery in housing and the general economy after what most expect to be a bumpy year in 2023.
In its November commentary, the ESR projects negative economic movement in the fourth quarter of this year, followed by a modest recession to begin in the first quarter of 2023.
Fannie projects real GDP growth in 2024 of 2 percent on a following an anticipated 2023 contraction of 0.6 percent. The recessionary prediction is based on “the full effects of tightening monetary policy and weaker global growth.” The projection for 2022 growth is 0.0 percent, up 0.1 percentage points from Fannie’s previous forecast.
Fannie’s forecast for mortgage originations changed little from previous forecasts. Single-family purchase originations, in terms of total valuation, are expected to fall 18.5 percent from 2022 to 2023. Existing home sales in 2023 are expected to be at their lowest annual pace since 2008. This is largely due to the “lock-in effect.”
Many existing homeowners have a financial disincentive to put their home on the market and take on a new mortgage rate that is significantly higher than what they currently pay. Fannie said more than 80 percent of existing borrowers have mortgages at least 200 basis points lower than current market rates. Fannie believes this level of disincentive hasn’t been seen since the late 1970s.
Fannie said purchase originations should rebound in 2024, but will be slightly less than this year’s volume.
The current rate environment has had an obvious effect on the refinance market, which will continue for the foreseeable future. Fannie projects $699 billion in 2022 and $375 billion in 2023, both small downgrades from its prior forecast. The company expects refinance volumes to grow to $538 billion in 2024 as mortgage rates are projected to decline somewhat over the year.
The combination of higher rates and higher home values means affordability measures are strained, which Fannie said will continue to limit home purchases by first-time homebuyers.
The extent of the surge in home values is reflected in the conforming loan limit values (CLLs) for 2023.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced last week the CLLs for mortgages to be acquired by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in 2023.
In most of the United States, the 2023 CLL value for one-unit properties will be $726,200, an increase of $79,000 from $647,200 in 2022.
The Housing and Economic Recovery Act (HERA) requires that the baseline CLL for the enterprises be adjusted each year to reflect the change in the average U.S. home price. According to the nominal, seasonally adjusted, expanded-data FHFA HPI, house prices increased 12.21 percent, on average, between the third quarters of 2021 and 2022. Therefore, the baseline CLL in 2023 will increase by the same percentage.
For areas in which 115 percent of the local median home value exceeds the baseline conforming loan limit, the applicable loan limit will be higher than the baseline loan limit. HERA establishes the high-cost area limit in those areas as a multiple of the area median home value, while setting the ceiling at 150 percent of the baseline limit. Median home values generally increased in high-cost areas in 2022, which increased their CLL. The new ceiling loan limit for one-unit properties will be $1,089,300, which is 150 percent of $726,200.
CLLs will be higher in all but two U.S. counties in 2023.
The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) also announced new loan limits for next year for its Single Family Title II forward and Home Equity Conversion Mortgage programs. This is also mandated by HERA and based on the CLLs established by FHFA.
The new forward mortgage loan limits for FHA range from $472,030 in low-cost areas to $1,089,300 in high-cost areas. The HECM maximum claim amount will increase from $970,800 in 2022 to $1,089,300.
About the Author
As an NAMU® Opinion Editorial Contributor, Joel Palmer is a freelance writer who spent 10 years as a business and financial reporter and another 10 years in marketing for the insurance and financial services industries. He regularly writes about the mortgage industry, as well as residential and commercial real estate, investments, and retirement income planning. He has also ghostwritten books on starting a business, marketing, and retirement income planning.